Weekly Commodity Roundup. Issue #1. June 24, 2026
The biggest moves in energy, metals, and ag, in 5 minutes.
Keegan Igneri | June 24, 2026
This week’s summary
The US-Iran war has ended for now and oil is falling. The copper and gas that power the AI boom continue to climb.
The US-Iran war that began in March has closed with a deal signed last week. The war premium drained out of crude, and oil dropped to a multi-month low. The Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh ran their first meeting, held rates, signaling higher for longer. Copper sits just off an early-June record and natural gas holds near $3 while the demand forecasts continue to climb.
Crude Oil
Price: Brent around $77.70 a barrel, down about 3.5% on the news, it’s lowest level since before the war began in February.
What moved it: The United States and Iran signed a 60-day memorandum of understanding on June 17th, it’s an interim ceasefire rather than an actual final peace deal. On June 22nd, the United States Treasury issued a 60-day license allowing Iran to produce and sell oil in dollars through August 21st.
Writer’s take: The price is moving on paper, but the oil is yet to move physically. The EIA assumes the Strait of Hormuz will be staying mostly closed in the near term, with oil flows unlikely to reach pre-war levels until early 2027. Tanker traffic is picking up but is still running well below the pre-war crossings. The selloff prices in a clean reopening the physical market hasn’t delivered. It would be a good idea to watch shipment data and not take the price at face value.
Copper and AI Infrastructure
Price: Sitting around $6.27 a pound, off a record $6.63 it set on June 2nd, a ~6% pullback.
What moved it: Data centers, grid expansion, and tight mine supply drove copper to that record, and a firm dollar plus chart resistance pulled it back. The demand math is obvious and large, a single hyperscale data site can use up to 50,000 tons of copper.
Writer’s take: Every data center needs copper for power and cooling. No one opens a new mine in a quarter. The dip looks more interesting to me than the June high did. The near-term risk is the dollar since a stronger dollar calls for greater pressure on every dollar-priced metal. I see the demand for copper outrunning the supply for years.
Natural Gas
Price: Henry Hub sits near $3 per MMBtu, roughly the same across 2026 as production is keeping pace with demand.
What moved it: Well honestly, not much yet. The US supply growth led by the Permian has capped prices, even as the demand for power rises.
Writer’s take: Gas is going to be the slow gain of the three. The price is nothing to really look at right now, but the demand setup is loud. Turbine orders have hit a 25-year high and there will be more than $500 billion spent on data centers this year. Forecasts have data center gas demand climbing multiple times over by 2030. A flat price sitting under a demand curve that is getting steeper and steeper by the day is a good setup to keep an eye on.
What to watch
6/24 – EIA petroleum status report.
6/25 – EIA natural gas storage report.
The Fed – Warsh signaled possible hikes by October, and 2-year Treasury yields sit at their highest in over a year. A more firm dollar leans on both oil and metals.
Copper – China demanding data and LME warehouse stocks.
Inflation – The next CPI and jobs reports, annual inflation near 3.8%.
This is not investment advice. This is one person’s analysis for informational purposes. Do your own research before trading.
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